Emigration Surges as South Africa's Population Reaches 63 Million

The Impact of Emigration on South Africa's Growing Population: A Closer Look

Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) has released its most recent mid-year population estimates for 2024, indicating that the South African population has surpassed 63 million, although significant numbers of individuals continue to emigrate.

According to Stats SA, the nation’s population increased by approximately 835,513 individuals from July 2023 to July 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 1.33%. Notably, females comprise more than half of the total population, amounting to roughly 32 million.

Provincial estimates reveal that Gauteng remains the most populous province with nearly 16 million residents, closely followed by KwaZulu-Natal with a population of approximately 12.3 million. Collectively, these two provinces represent about 45% of South Africa's overall demographic distribution. In contrast, Northern Cape is identified as the least populated province with just under 1.4 million inhabitants.

The Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYPE) serve as essential demographic indicators that illustrate recovery trends in relation to death rates and growth rates post-Covid-19 pandemic.

The crude death rate (CDR)—which quantifies annual deaths per every thousand individuals—reached its peak at 11.1 in the year 2021 amidst the height of the pandemic; however, this figure has substantially decreased to an estimated CDR of 8.7 by the year 2024 due to effective Covid-19 interventions.

Additionally, following a decline in both immigration and increased mortality during the period between years two-thousand twenty and twenty-one owing to Covid-19 impacts—which caused a drop in annual population growth rates—it is noteworthy that these rates have rebounded back up to an impressive level of 1.33% as recorded in this year's assessment.

In its analysis of migration patterns, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) has observed a regularization of these trends, which has informed their estimations.

The organization acknowledges that tracking migration remains inherently challenging. While the country maintains reliable records for births and deaths—facilitating estimates related to fertility and mortality—the surveillance systems in place for international migration do not accurately capture the number of migrants entering South Africa via land, sea, or air.

Stats SA stated, "Although substantial efforts have been made to secure South Africa’s borders, irregular migration continues to be a prevalent issue contributing to discrepancies in migration data."

Nonetheless, by triangulating multiple data sources—including census information and demographic structures alongside other monitoring systems such as education, health care, employment statistics, as well as censuses from nations capturing patterns of South African migrants and tourists—it is possible to refine assumptions regarding migratory movements.

Employing this methodology, Stats SA projects that net migration into South Africa will reach approximately 758,538 individuals between 2021 and 2026. This figure represents a significant increase over the previous estimate of approximately 592,000 people that was calculated during a period marked by lockdowns and pandemic-related restrictions.

Notably, Stats SA pointed out that across population groups, all groups show a positive net migration (ie, people coming into the country) except for the white population, which is showing negative net migration.

Tracking data from 1985 through to 2026, it is estimated that just under 700,000 white South Africans will have emigrated. Approximately 203,000 white South Africans emigrated between 1985 and 2000.

The emigration pattern has slowed down in recent periods, moving from 111,346 from this demographic emigrating between 2011 and 2016 to an estimate of 84,308 people emigrating between 2021 and 2026.

According to Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), net international migration estimates are derived from a combination of the Census 2011 migration data as well as data and proportions sourced from various reputable entities such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA).

These estimates take into consideration the number of new immigration permits issued, which provide only a partial representation of actual migration flows (OECD, 2023). It is important to highlight that irregular migration constitutes a substantial component of overall migratory movements, often overlooked in official statistics; this variegation is evident across different countries.

Additionally, Stats SA incorporates census data gathered by National Statistical Offices (NSOs) from various nations along with related migration statistics.

Previous analyses from UNDESA indicated that nearly 1 million South Africans reside abroad. Historical figures reflect this trend: In 2000, there were approximately 501,600 South African citizens living overseas. This number increased to 550,462 in 2005 and continued its upward trajectory—reaching 743,807 in 2010; increasing further to 786,554 in 2015; and ultimately attaining approximately 914,901 by the year 2020.